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The Weekly Strategy Report (27 April 2015)


Greece: Melpomene, Thalia, or Nike*? Six and a half years after the credit crisis, Greece is still front page news. I’m not going to rehearse the background of this particular drama, but I think it might be helpful to put a frame around it in order to point out the likelihood of particular outcomes.

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Market Insights: Clock still ticking on Greek default

Greece bumpy road to recovery

The Greek government has bought itself a few more weeks to reach a deal with its official creditors by raiding the cash balances of local government offices and departments. But this is only a temporary stop-gap. Given the little time left and the tortuous pace of negotiations, we believe there is now a 50% chance of some form of Greek sovereign default. But what happens next is not black and white.

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The Weekly Brief (27 April 2015)


Euro area capex as a share of GDP is currently close to its record low. But the pressure to begin making capital investments is mounting. As capacity utilisation in the region starts to tick upwards from its mid-2013 trough, companies will have to consider finally making the investments that they’ve been putting off.

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